Forecast backs a bet on a new molecule

The story

A clinical-stage biotech faced a fork in the road on a first-in-class small molecule for a crowded oncology indication. The team had promising Phase 1b signals but a wide confidence interval on commercial potential. Investors pushed for an early out-license. The internal view swung between a 250 to 950 million euro peak sales range. That range stalled the board.
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We built a ground-up forecast from epidemiology upward, not spreadsheets downward. We mapped incidence, prevalence, line-of-therapy splits, and real-world treatment sequences across the US and EU5. We ran conjoint studies with payers to quantify willingness to reimburse at varying effect sizes and safety profiles. We added a KOL-validated patient journey to pressure-test adherence, discontinuation, and switch rates. The model incorporated Bayesian updating to link the forecast to the planned Phase 2 readouts and the companion diagnostic rollout.

Two levers changed the decision. First, biomarker enrichment narrowed the eligible population but raised probability of clinical success from 35% to 52% and lifted expected peak sales from 420 to 760 million euros. Second, access testing showed a defensible pricing corridor at 6.5 to 8.0 thousand euros per month with prior-auth restrictions that we could design around. We translated this into a staged investment plan and a partnering term sheet.

The board advanced to Phase 2 with a limited regional license. The company signed a 55 million euro upfront, 380 million in milestones, and a 12% royalty for ex-US rights. Burn stayed under control. Twelve months later, interim data met the enriched endpoints. The company revalued the US rights by 28%, and the share price doubled. The asset is now positioned for a focused launch with a clear label strategy and payer playbooks already tested.